Author Archives: David Dayen

FDL Book Salon Welcomes Gar Alperovitz, What Then Must We Do?: Straight Talk About the Next American Revolution

Welcome Gar Alperovitz (GarAlperovitz.com) (University of Maryland) (New Economics Institute)  and Host David Dayen (DavidDayen) (Salon.com) (NakedCapitalism) (Twitter)

What Then Must We Do?: Straight Talk About the Next American Revolution

In What Then Must We Do?, political economy professor Gar Alperovitz slowly and deliberately nudges readers off the traditional course of political activism assumed to bring about progressive change – elections, legislative fights, protest actions, firing the twin engines of grassroots Democratic groups and organized labor – arguing that these methods have failed. He finds readers at that moment of despair, when the best efforts we’ve known to create the space for change have failed. Indeed, he doesn’t believe that these efforts can reverse what is now a decades-long march of structural economic, environmental and political decline. “Absent major national shocks,” he writes, “the capacity for fundamental political change is limited in the American context.”

What then must we do? We must work, gradually, opportunistically, insistently, for democratization of the economic sphere, creating a nation of worker-owned cooperatives and publicly provided goods and services. This shift in the control and ownership of property – energy, broadband Internet, agriculture, banking, health care services, etc. – is happening, at an albeit glacial pace, in areas across the country, in ways we often don’t recognize. 130 million Americans are members of some kind of cooperative, 95 million through credit unions, which have benefited from the nascent “move your money” campaign out of big banks (I am among the ranks of credit union membership).

To use an isolated success story, Chattanooga, Tennessee, has the largest publicly provided municipal broadband Internet service in the country, delivering speeds as high as two hundred times faster than the national average, at an affordable price, distributed by the city’s publicly-owned electric utility. This deliberate effort to generate world-class local infrastructure has attracted businesses to Chattanooga, as well as other economic development. Examples like this litter the book.

It’s nice to think that an evolution of further democratization efforts, focused on the communities most receptive to the idea, while using them as models to bring the rest of the country along, can succeed in creating a more equitable society where prosperity is broadly shared. And certainly, shifting how wealth is owned and controlled could generally have a salutary effect, though I’m skeptical of automatically fitting all public ownership examples into a frame of absolute good. (Should state-owned oil companies excite us, or Alaska’s public distributions of dividends on oil deposits? Or airlines that happen to be publicly owned in countries controlled by dictatorships?)

I wish more attention was provided to the flip side of the democratization scenario, which is also happening right now around the country – the privatization of public assets. This has accelerated since the Great Recession, as cash-strapped municipalities seek ways to balance their budgets by stripping their cities and regions of their resources. And it’s happening with the full culpability of largely Democratic urban mayors. Philadelphia is selling off its historic Gas Works. Chicago sold its parking meters, to disastrous effect. Operations and maintenance on the main highway between Denver and Boulder, Colorado is now in private hands. And there are dozens of other examples of outright privatization or public-private partnerships, a key initiative of the Obama Administration. Alperovitz mentions this in passing, but stresses that there need to be simultaneous strategies of holding the line against these predatory privatization efforts, the selling of America to private interests, while also moving forward on other fronts with public provisions of things like broadband Internet and electricity and banking. (Sadly there was no mention of one of my personal hobby horses, a public option for simple banking through the US Postal Service.)

It’s also unclear to me whether Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) and worker-owned cooperatives have always and forever “embraced with a specific political-economic intent,” as Alperovitz claims. He notes the General Motors rescue as an example of how the government can take over a private company, and how the Voluntary employee benefit association (VEBA) of GM’s union partially owned the company in the aftermath. But of course, a feature of post-rescue GM is lower salaries for its line workers, hardly the intended outcome of worker ownership, in Alperovitz’ context. To use another example from the book, the biggest region in America for employee ownership is Ohio, which has been actively involved in such democratization for three decades. I don’t get the sense that their economy, wages and standard of living are somehow in better shape over that period than regions which have not embraced this model; in fact, quite the opposite. But perhaps this just means that they haven’t yet moved far enough in that direction. Alperovitz talks of evolutionary cycles, and when you are up against entrenched corporate interests, that’s probably the right way to think.

The book is excellent on dispelling the myth of privatization as an inherently more efficient manner to distribute goods and services. This conveniently neglects all the negative externalities private ownership incorporates, such as the threats to the economy from private banks (and the cost of the inevitable bailouts), the poor set of outcomes associated with our largely private health insurance system, the costs of “throwing away cities” by constantly moving factories to take advantage of tax benefits or lower wages, and so on.

Overall, I think Alperovitz nails the insufficiency of the current ways in which we think about motivating progressive change, and the suggestion of putting efforts into different economic models with workers and public interests at the forefront is a far better reaction than simple despair. “All of us have a vested interest in pessimism,” he writes, because it enables us to merely carp from the sidelines. We should rather have a vested interest in developing institutions that are sustainable, that aren’t dependent on endless growth at the expense of community interests, that serve the taxpayers who fund the system rather than narrow corporate lobbies, that will work toward reductions in inequality and the preservation of the planet instead of the pure profit motive.

I look forward to a good discussion on these issues. Welcome Gar Alperovitz to FDL Book Salon.

 

[As a courtesy to our guests, please keep comments to the book and be respectful of dissenting opinions.  Please take other conversations to a previous thread. - bev]

Morgan Stanley Banker Who Stabbed Cab Driver Fired by Firm

William Bryan Jennings, mugshot

I was racking my brain for one final story that sums up this era in politics, the state of our world circa 2012, and I have to give it to this one from a few days ago.

William Bryan Jennings, whose parents obviously hoped for a Progressive populist reformer as a child, grew up to work at Morgan Stanley, and acquire all the sense of entitlement and douchebaggery that goes along with such an occupation (I believe they give that to you at the same time as your parking space). One year ago to the day, on December 21, 2011, Jennings left a Christmas party in New York City, and his town car didn’t show up (#richwhitepeopleproblems). So he hailed a cab to take him to his home in Darien, Connecticut. When he got home, Jennings decided to treat the cab ride like a buyout deal, and trying to negotiate down for a lower fare. This is an executive at Morgan Stanley who didn’t want to pay full fare to get home. The cabbie asked for $204 (Jennings said it was $294). Jennings offered $50 (good negotiating ploy; start low!). At this point I should mention that Jennings makes around $3 million a year.

The cabbie went to the police to settle the argument, driving away from the home. So Jennings did the obvious thing: he pulled out a pen knife and started fighting with the Middle Eastern cabbie, yelling racial slurs like “Go back to your own fucking country” and “I’m going to kill you, motherfucker,” cutting him on the right hand and eventually escaping from the cab. Jennings ran home and spent two months hiding from the police before coming forward.

You know how this story ends. Jennings got away with it. The state dropped the charges because the cabbie held onto the pen knife for five months before delivering it to police, thereby tainting the evidence. So it’s the same old story; entitled, rich banker assaulting a working person and getting away with it on a technicality. William Bryan Jennings was too big to fail.

But a funny thing happened. Morgan Stanley fired the guy for breaching their internal code of conduct.

William Bryan Jennings, the banker whose assault and hate-crime charges over a dispute with a New York cab driver were dropped, was fired by Morgan Stanley and is now reportedly trying to get millions in deferred compensation denied him by his former employer [...]

Jennings and his attorney did not immediately return a request for comment. An unnamed spokesman for Jennings told the Journal: “The issue is not Mr. Jennings’ conduct. The issue is Morgan Stanley’s conduct. Morgan Stanley knew Mr. Jennings was victimized and still fired him and still kept his money.”

A spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley provided a statement:

“While we cannot comment on specific instances or individuals, the claw back provisions in our compensation model allow us to take action where appropriate when an employee engages in conduct that is detrimental to the firm, including conduct that causes damage to the firm’s franchise and reputation, or creates a situation in which the Firm suffers losses or is exposed to excessive financial or regulatory risks.”

This seems like a case of just desserts, and it is. But the flip side of this is that Morgan Stanley saw the opportunity to deny compensation to one of their executives after he embarrassed the firm, and they made it a pretty good deal for them by clawing back as much as $5 million in compensation. The firm did not suffer any losses from this sorry tale, let’s be honest. But Morgan Stanley can use that for their own financial advantage.

So this is the perfect Wall Street story: entitled, self-absorbed assholes, the fecklessness of the justice system, and firms taking any opportunity to make money off the exchange.

America!

The Fiscal Slope Exposes Deficit Scolds as Cowards

Maya MacGuineas, one of the "deficit scolds" responsible

Let’s just stipulate something for the record. If the Congressional Budget Office were asked to step in and score John Boehner’s “Plan B,” it would score as an increase to the deficit by about $4.9 trillion over ten yeas. If CBO scored the Obama plan, it would score as an increase to the deficit by about $4.1 trillion over ten years. That’s because current law dictates that America goes over the cliff and stays there. It doesn’t contemplate any changes to the law. And if America went over this cliff, the resulting austerity would be so great that it would swing the economy into recession. It would also virtually wipe out the long-term deficit gap, even while it would probably increase it a bit in the near term, because of increases in automatic stabilizers. But over the long-term, the deficit would essentially be wiped out.

The fact that everyone in Washington, everyone on Wall Street, every economic analyst in America is freaking out over this possibility should tell you what you need to know about the importance of reducing the deficit. Both sides are trying their best to cut taxes from current law to avoid the near-term consequences of austerity. The debate comes from whether to cut taxes by $4.1 trillion or by $4.9 trillion. Both sides basically want to keep the spending cuts from the 2011 debt limit deal relatively intact, just shifting it around a bit.

The CBO also publishes an “Alternative Fiscal Scenario,” where they try to guess at what policies will get extended and what policies won’t. But that’s nonsense. They might as well consult a fortune teller. CBO’s job is to explain the consequences of current law and proposals to alter it. If they were honest, they would explain that Congress and the White House are currently negotiating over how much to increase the deficit.

This article covers a lot of this same ground. But it focuses on the case for doing a deal in January. I’m trying to explain the case for telling “deficit hawks” to shut their damn mouths. They’ve been exposed by this entire process as complete cowards, unable to deal with the consequences of their own rhetoric. They’ve demanded, in the most apocalyptic terms imaginable, a “deal on the debt” that led to the political construction of this cliff, which nobody can seem to figure out how to avoid. There’s nobody more responsible for the economic hardship in the aftermath than the likes of Pete Peterson and Maya MacGuinness. And the sad thing is that they won’t feel it. They’re incomparably wealthy, and they won’t face any challenges if a recession CAUSED BY THEIR ACTIONS hits. It’s the average working man and woman who will suffer.

Acknowledgements

It is with a heavy heart that I wrap up these eight-plus years of writing things on the Internet. The concurrence between my last day and the end of the Mayan calendar, by the way, is purely coincidental; I do think there will be news after today, and most likely people covering it (anyway, the whole world-ending thing is a great big misunderstanding, I guess). Anyway, there are a lot of people who deserve to be mentioned.

I could really bore you to tears and begin my thank-yous with Vinton Cerf and inventor of the blog Dave Winer, but let’s instead move on to calling out the people who worked with me here at FDL News over the years, those who have come and gone and those still remaining, most of whom get far too little attention, but without whom I could not have had this incredible run. I give a great tip of the cap to editors like Gregg Levine and Scarecrow and Elliott (and every so often, Jane), to the indefatigable Bev Wright at the Book Salon, to my fellow members of the FDL family past and present, like Jon and Spencer and Marcy and Bill and Lisa and Kevin and Pam and Tom and Teddy and Phoenix Woman and Peterr and Eli and on and on, to Michael Whitney and Brian Sonenstein on the activism side, to Ryan Cook and Deveria Flowers and all the other moderators and behind-the-scenes folk I’m sure I’m leaving out.

Jane hired me, and then let me basically set my own course for what this site would look like. She has been ridiculously generous and encouraging to me from Day 1, and I will never forget the opportunity and platform she provided me. She assembled this all-star team of writers and activists and sustained this site during a challenging time for independent media, and I have no doubt that she will continue to succeed. Thanks so much.

Fatster is someone who jumped in when I needed some help maintaining the site over a vacation, and stayed on to produce the best and most variegated daily links roundup on the Internet, reaching levels I could only have hoped to surmount when I did my end-of-the-day tab dump. She’s been a great asset to this site in 2012, and I hope she keeps at it.

I could not even begin to count the sources, progressive friends, think tankers, activist organizations, communications people, legislative aides, lawmakers, fellow journalists and bloggers, and basically everyone who helped me at any point in some form or fashion with putting together a post. I may not have always lined up on the same side as them on every issue, but they were always willing to help me out and engage where necessary. It takes a village to build a news cycle blog.

And to you, the reader. Over the past couple weeks since I made this announcement that I would step aside, I have been overwhelmed by the outpouring of support and kind words from countless folks. People who do this for a while will tell you that they always, in the back of their mind, fear (and probably are just convinced) that they are merely screaming into a dark void. It means so much to me that you all have reached out to let me know that, in some meager way, I managed to have a measure of impact, at least at that individual level. This is all a writer can really hope for, and I’m humbled by your comments and emails and tweets.

My wife Mary is the most wonderful, patient person in the whole world, and I’m certain she will be pleased to get to go to sleep at night without the piercing light of an active laptop to contend with. The biggest thanks goes to her since none of you, at least as far as I know from my vantage point, have to put up with that. Also I’m sorry I left the back door open last night. Like blogging, marriage is a work in progress.

I really and truly have no idea what I’m going to do next as far as this part of my life goes. My wife tells me that I’ll last a month, tops, before crawling back. I don’t really think so (I gave a fuller explanation of my thought process in making this decision on Sam Seder’s radio show, if you’re interested), but she seems to know me well. So we shall see.

If anything does change, I’m sure I’ll let people know @ddayen. And if I do move forward, I hope I can count on you to move forward with me.

This has been a great privilege. Thank you.

###

Hoyer Pushes Plan to Pass Obama Offer With Bipartisan Mix

So Democrats have reached the bargaining phase of the fiscal slope debacle. It’s hard to say whether they’re pushing this because they think they have an opportunity to avoid the austerity bomb or because they know they have no partner on the other side, but either way, the result is the Democratic leadership, at least in the House, taking control of a plan that would, among other things, cut Social Security benefits as well as benefits for any of the 50 federal programs with a cost of living adjustment or income-based eligibility standard, and begging John Boehner to work with them to pass it.

Steny Hoyer had this to say on CNBC today.

Democratic House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday he thought Republicans would be willing to work with the president. “We still need to focus on not going over the cliff,” he said. “It’s not good for the country, not good for the economy, not good for the confidence of the American people.”

He added: “John Boehner could not get his own bill through the Republican majority. What John Boehner I think can do is come to an agreement with the president and get half of his people or a little more than half of his people” to reach a bipartisan agreement.

That’s the conventional view – Boehner could abandon his right flank and join hands with the majority of Democrats on something that can pass. But on with Andrea Mitchell, Hoyer went further. He specifically said that the vehicle for such a deal could be the last Obama Administration offer, which would increase tax rates above $400,000, extend unemployment benefits, and include a process for a total of $1.2 trillion in tax increases and $930 billion in spending cuts, including switching to the chained CPI for Social Security and other social program benefits, as well as tax brackets. There are other parts to the deal as well (a permanent patch for the alternative minimum tax and the doc fix, a two-year stand-down on the debt limit), but those are the highlights. Hoyer basically said that he could bring Democrats along with half the votes for such a deal, while Republicans could get the other half.

I don’t think it’s possible for Republicans to get that other half, actually, and Boehner supporting a deal like this would spell the end of his leadership. Maybe he’s willing to take the risk but I doubt it. Still, you have to marvel at the agenda-setting power of the President, who often gets described in these budget deals as at the mercy of the other side. The President put an offer on the table, and regardless of the details, the House Democratic leadership is completely going to bat for it. The strategic considerations of a post-cliff deal versus a pre-cliff deal are completely irrelevant. Because the President wants a deal to cut Social Security benefits as part of a compromise he reaches with Republicans – it was in his campaign book, fercryinoutloud – that has become the official Democratic position in the House at this point. All of the social insurance cuts in this debate came directly from the desk of Barack Obama. Republicans support block-granting Medicaid and voucherizing Medicare. But because Obama offered increases in the eligibility age and means testing and chained CPI in 2011, they’re back in the debate in 2012. And that’s all that’s in the debate.

The numbers for passage simply don’t add up here – there’s no rump Republican caucus committed to this. The best plan continues to be to give space to Republicans to pass a pure tax cut in January, use the proceeds to avoid the sequester, freeze withholding rates and use OMB to avert the worst of the sequester until that deal coalesces, and then just refuse to negotiate on the debt limit, as the President has said all along. This is not in the strategic thinking of Washington Democrats. They want a deal, even with no partner on the other side.


Judge Strikes Down Constitutional Challenge to the Filibuster

Senate Chamber

If there’s going to be reform to the Senate’s rules, it’s going to have to come from the Senate itself. That’s the implication of a ruling in federal court today throwing out a Constitutional challenge to the filibuster.

Judge Emmet Sullivan ruled that the plaintiffs in the case, who claimed that the Senate used an unconstitutional super-majority to block citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought to America as children by their families, had no standing to challenge the Senate’s internal procedures. Additionally, he said that the judicial branch has basically no right to dictate rules changes to the legislative branch:

Reaching the merits of this case would require an invasion into internal Senate processes at the heart of the Senate’s constitutional prerogatives as a House of Congress, and would thus express a lack of respect for the Senate as a coordinate branch of government.

It’s hard for me to really argue with this ruling, even if it didn’t arrive at my preferred ends. You can’t really have courts overturning the way that the Senate does its business. The angle of members of the House, also parties to the case, arguing that their rights of representation were violated by the filibuster just doesn’t really fly in this case.

So the Senate will have to fix the Senate. As for the status of that, Democrats appear to have the votes to make at least some changes to the filibuster rule, none of which eliminate it. But too many members of the majority are antsy at using the Constitutional option, which says that rules changes at the beginning of a session require a simple majority. They don’t want to be saddled with the precedent, which of course would be the biggest deterrent to obstruction on the part of the minority. In addition, the extension of the fiscal slope debate means that the Senate won’t have a lot of time to deliberate over the rules, because they may be expected to legislate immediately upon swearing-in. So the whipping really has to get done in the next several days.

I think something will get done in the Senate, but the chances of that being game0-changing are remote. Then again, looking at the bad Jerry Lewis film that is the House of Representatives at this point, the Senate looks positively functional.

Sullivan’s ruling is here.

NRA’s LaPierre Calls for Armed Guards in Schools – You Know, Like at Columbine

In a bizarre press conference, NRA Chairman Wayne LaPierre called for the immediate placement of armed guards in all public schools. This is classic “fighting the last war” thinking, along with a dash of “think of the children” policymaking.

Just quickly, because you shouldn’t even dignify this with much of a response. One, it would cost $5.5 billion a year to put a guard in every public school in America. If that could come out of NRA dues or a tax on bullets, maybe we can talk. I don’t think that’s what LaPierre had in mind. Second, gun violence doesn’t only happen in public schools. WHILE LAPIERRE HELD HIS PRESS CONFERENCE, four people died in a mass shooting in Altoona, Pennsylvania, where the gunman just ran up and down a rural road. Presumably LaPierre’s response wouldn’t be “armed guards on all rural roads,” but we’ll see what he says at next week’s press conference. Finally, there was an armed guard at Columbine High School when two students shot up the school. He left for lunch when the shooting started, and returned in time to miss the target. The idea that you can place a security blanket around America is ridiculous, aside from the civil liberties degradation.

The speech itself was completely insane, and we do an injustice by even paying a second’s worth of attention to it, something I’ve already betrayed here. But it does show the magical thinking that allows the NRA to maintain power. Reportedly, some Democrats expected conciliation out of LaPierre at this press conference. He disappointed them. And with a substantial chunk of the House in his hip pocket, he has no reason not to disappoint. The “armed guards in schools” bit sounds like a classic wedge issue that Congress would leap at the chance to waste money on, especially if the NRA decides to score it. They successfully shut down debate on the gun issue for well over a decade. Maybe Newtown will provide a tipping point, though I question whether it should (that’s not an argument against gun safety, it’s an argument against the kind of “think of the children” policymaking I expect in the aftermath). But the NRA’s run a good game for a long time, and they haven’t been given a reason to stop yet.

The Pileup Behind the Fiscal Slope, and the Consequences of Inaction

Say what you will about the 2010 deal to extend the Bush tax cuts, which helped to set up what we’re seeing this month. But there was definitely a virtue in getting it done by early December, allowing for a productive lame duck session that repealed Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, passed the New START arms reduction treaty, and several other measures. Because this entire lame duck has been consumed with fiscal slope negotiations, and really only the tax rate and social insurance part of it, bills that might have had a chance to pass through Congress if the pipeline were unclogged instead remain dormant. And unlike 2010, the bills in question in 2012 are more of the must-pass variety.

For example, the Violence Against Women Act hasn’t passed the House, and while I believe the appropriations associated with it extend into March (hey, good news, at the end of March Congress has to pass another budget), they could easily lapse, and so would all kinds of resources for victims of domestic abuse.

The doc fix ends in December, and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has already begun a process which would lower Medicare reimbursement rates by 27%, under the “Sustainable Growth Rate” formula that Congress has never let go into effect.

The appropriation of emergency funds for response to Hurricane Sandy may be underway in the Senate, but it’s a shadow play until the House can put the fiscal turmoil behind them and focus. This is among the most unkind consequences, as millions suffering under the weight of that disaster will probably get no additional federal help in the coming weeks.

Oh yeah, and your milk prices will go up to as high as $8 a gallon in the event that Congress fails to pass a farm bill or an extension of some kind, and federal price supports revert back to 1949. Wheat prices are likely to soar as a result as well, and quite a few things get made with wheat, I reckon.

The wind energy sector is likely to collapse when the wind production tax credit, something litigated during the Presidential campaign, expires at the end of the year. The wind industry tried to broker a compromise of a phase-out of their tax credit after six years to provide certainty, but that’s an artifact of a fiscal slope deal.

Perhaps the most invisible consequence, the expiring tax measure that actually hits an area of strength in the economy, is the one I’ve been talking about since April, the expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act. This would force borrowers receiving mortgage debt relief, in the form of a principal reduction or short sale, to pay taxes on the amount forgiven. The effect will be to completely end principal reductions and short sales, leading to more foreclosures and also taking a meat axe to the housing market, where as many as 35-40% of all home purchases in some distressed areas come from short sales.

None of these implications have anything to do with the common set of consequences most people would describe of going down the slope, like taxes rising for every American, or unemployment checks halting for 2 million Americans, or mass furloughs of federal workers and reductions in agency budgets as a result of the sequester. I think the economy can handle the consequences of the big things for a while, especially if the Administration takes smart action like freezing withholding rates or avoiding the worst near-term effects of the sequester through evasive action at OMB. But the rest of these consequences are going to be hard to avoid. You can safely blame this Congress, the worst in living memory, for allowing such a pileup.

Kerry Finalized as Secretary of State Nominee

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)

Former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry will become the next nominee for Secretary of State, replacing Hillary Clinton and creating another Senate vacancy.

President Obama will formally announce the nomination today at the White House, according to sources. He is not expected to face much resistance in the Senate for confirmation. Kerry will likely recuse himself from the confirmation hearings, since they would take place at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which he chairs. But there’s no word on when or if Kerry will step down from the Senate, the timing of which triggers a series of vacancy laws in Massachusetts.

Those laws are made to be rewritten, and as I noted the first time this nomination became clear, there is no reason why the Massachusetts legislature will live with a situation where they have to hold a special election for Kerry’s seat within 150 days of him stepping down. On two prior occassions, the mostly Democratic legislature changed their Senate vacancy law for maximum partisan advantage – in 2004, when they reacted to Kerry’s potential elevation to the Presidency and Mitt Romney’s opportunity to name a replacement by creating the quick special election process, and in 2009, when they reacted to Ted Kennedy’s death by allowing for a gubernatorially-selected interim replacement, so Senate Democrats could pass health care. The legislature could simply move out the special election to the time of the next general election in Massachusetts, in this case 2014. That would eliminate the possibility of a quick-strike, short-term campaign, where soon-to-be-former Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, would probably have the advantage, especially if Democratic Governor Deval Patrick did not run. A 2014 election would give time for Democrats to build a campaign with another candidate, and would put the election at the same time as the gubernatorial election and House elections in the state, which would probably change the turnout model. I fully expect this to happen, and Governor Patrick told a local radio show recently that he would sign such a bill.

As for an interim replacement, the intriguing possibility is retiring House mainstay Barney Frank. But there are a number of other options.

I would refer back to my earlier comments about Kerry’s expected performance at the job. He’s a mainstream Democrat who will offer a mainstream, establishment perspective to diplomacy and foreign policy. I don’t see it changing the outcomes all that much.

Glenn Hubbard’s Hilarious Deposition on Behalf of Countrywide

Glenn Hubbard, Dean of the Columbia University Graduate School of Business

General business has kept me from reading the deposition Matt Taibbi writes about here, but it sounds amazing.

Anyone who’s seen the movie Inside Job will recall the stupendously angering scene in which (Mitt Romney advisor Glenn) Hubbard pissily snaps at his interviewer for asking about his outside relationships with financial services industry [...]

“This isn’t a deposition, sir,” he hissed. “I was polite enough to give you time, foolishly I now see. Give it your best shot.”

Again, there’s just nothing like karma. If your answer to a perfectly sensible question is going to be, “Screw you, this isn’t a deposition,” exactly how long do you think it’ll be before you end up actually getting deposed? And forced to answer, under oath, just how much your opinions cost?

A couple of years, as it turns out.

Hidden among the reams of material recently filed in connection with the lawsuit of monoline insurer MBIA against Bank of America and Countrywide is a deposition of none other than Columbia University’s Glenn Hubbard. And boy, is it a wild deposition. It’s like Inside Job, only Hubbard has to answer the questions he doesn’t want to answer. Reading it is like watching a man try to avoid breathing in a gas chamber.

Wow, just wow. The deposition is right here. As Taibbi notes, Hubbard testified for Countrywide in the lawsuit. This is one of the bigger mortgage-backed securities cases out there. MBIA is suing Countrywide over misrepresentations and fraud in the underwriting process that caused them to lose lots of money on securities they insured for investors. Hubbard apparently endorsed the view that Countrywide’s loans were of the same quality as other mortgage lenders, and thus they didn’t owe the insurer, or investors, any recompense. The losses stemmed from the financial crisis, according to him.

We obviously have reams of data and documentary evidence to rebut that. But Hubbard picked up $1,200 an hour from Countrywide to lie for them. And in the deposition he reveals that, for all that money, he basically looked at Countrywide loans and then he looked at other loans from the same time frame. And not the loan files, but the failure rates. In other words, he testified to the veracity of Countrywide’s underwriting without looking at, um, the underwriting. You wouldn’t catch any variance between Countrywide and other loans if the fraud was systemic during the time of the bubble – which it was. Ameriquest and New Century and all kinds of other fly-by-night lenders, all of them now defunct, had the same business model – write as many loans as possible, regardless of the quality. Hubbard just compared this crap against one another rather than reality. This part of the deposition that Taibbi highlights is hilarious:

Q. Did you make any inquiry into how Countrywide actually originated its loans?

A. I’m not sure exactly what you mean by that.

Q. You understand there was a process by which Countrywide originated the loans that it included in the securitizations?

A. Yes.

Q. And there was also a process by which Countrywide examined the loans that it purchased from other originators inclusion in securitizations?

A. Correct.

Q. Did you make any factual inquiry into the nature of either the process of origination or the process of due diligence by Countrywide?

A. I’m not an underwriter in this proceeding, so neither of the assignments that I told you would require such.

More than half of the loans Hubbard “studied” came from lenders being sued by other entities for fraud in their underwriting process.

It’s pretty incredible that Hubbard, an academic, thought he could throw this fastball by lawyers involved in MBS litigation for years and years. And it’s almost a shock that Countrywide got so little for their money.

I’m going to have fun curling up with this deposition sometime soon.

Where to Go From Plan B, And Why the Answer Is “Nowhere”

nowhere man

I couldn’t think of a more fitting story on my last day of blogging to symbolize the nature of our government than the aborting of Plan B, wherein House Republicans couldn’t even pass a messaging bill with no chance of advancing. Sometimes we’ve seen Speaker Boehner miscount the votes – the most notable time I can think of was an initial vote reauthorizing the Patriot Act, when some civil libertarians revolted – but not on a pure messaging bill.

In the aftermath, nobody can help but try to analyze the strategy going forward. The White House’s statement basically gave up on everything in the fiscal slope but the tax rates, saying “The President’s main priority is to ensure that taxes don’t go up on 98 percent of Americans and 97 percent of small businesses in just a few short days.” Harry Reid’s spokesman said that ”
“It is now clear that to protect the middle class from the fiscal cliff, Speaker Boehner must allow a bill to pass with a combination of Democratic and Republican votes.”

Surely, that’s the conventional wisdom. If Republicans can’t even get a bill done where they get everything they want out of the deal (including cutting Meals on Wheels, food stamps, all kinds of anti-poverty programs, and holding the military and Wall Street harmless) but raising tax rates on not even 0.5% of the population, what compromise measure could get more than token support?

But Boehner, following the Iron Law of Institutions, probably cares more about his position as Speaker than forging a deal for the country. Which means he cannot possibly put forward legislation that would get 190 Democratic votes and 20 Republican ones until he gets re-elected Speaker January 3, and maybe not even then. There’s also the question of whether a rump caucus even exists among House Republicans, especially… after January 3. Sure, there are a few lame ducks now who would commit to raising tax rates above $250,000 and going home – Steve LaTourette, Mary Bono Mack, just to name a couple. But they’re both headed home after 2012. I know that bipartisan bills occasionally get through the House – it’s how TARP got done, and the 2011 debt limit deal – but none of them raised taxes.

Then there’s the question of what’s still operative. I agree with Dan Burton (shudder) that Republicans may consent to a bill purely cutting taxes on the first $250,000 in income, after the Bush tax cuts sunset. But would the leadership say that, since the President offered the concession to raise the dividing line to $400,000, they won’t go any further than that? The only way to square this is for President Obama to publicly take his last offer off the table, saying that, given the demise of negotiations, he’s returning to his initial position and won’t sign any legislation that extends tax cuts for rates above $250,000. This is what Damon Silvers of the AFL-CIO counseled yesterday. The Press Secretary’s statement, in referencing 98% of individuals and 97% of small businesses, actually alludes to the $250,000 dividing line.

But the President is still hunting a deal, and might want his options open for something that splits the Republican caucus. But again, you get to the dead end of there not being enough House Republicans, even if you find something that House Democrats grudgingly accept, to pass a bill that raises tax rates in 2012. I just don’t see it. Nothing shows you more about how ideologically aligned against taxes that caucus is than last night. And the White House desperately needs that fig leaf of a tax rate hike to accomplish a deal, purely for public relations purposes if nothing else. Republican intransigence stopped the grand bargain again.

So these strategic considerations are I think a non-starter. So is wondering about the Obama offer, with its chained CPI and the rest. There’s no negotiating partner on the other side, and Democrats can’t pass something by themselves. That’s why I’m fairly resigned to going over the slope. Preferences are really out the window at this point; it’s what will happen.

UPDATE: Matt Yglesias offers a slatepitch that’s the complete opposite view. I really don’t see it. The bill last night represented a maximalist, Republicans-get-everything-they-want view of something with tax increases in it. Anything less than that – i.e. something that could get wide Democratic support – would be rejected wholesale by the Republican rank and file, because a) Obama wants it and b) they wouldn’t get everything they want, making the tax lift harder. There’s also a difference between sticking with leadership on a messaging vote and sticking with them on something that could pass into law.

Photo from Speaker Boehner under Creative Commons license.

What the Housing Market Actually Looks Like

This week brought more good statistical news for the housing market. Existing home sales rose at a decent clip in November, nearing post-bubble highs not seen since the artificial spike from the homebuyer’s tax credit (I’ve noted that the end of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act could be giving the same spike). Inventory fell again, which presages higher prices. And while housing starts fell in November, the more stable indicator of homebuilding permits rose above expectations. There’s a huge hole to dig out from – even with its 25% rise, housing starts in 2012 would be the 4th-lowest in history – but the digging is occurring.

However, it might be worth looking at some other statistics, to understand not the housing market based on prices and starts and sales, but based on what it looks like for the average person. And that shows a very different picture.

First of all, here’s a fairly astonishing stat:

Bank of America Corp. has amassed $64 billion of mortgages that are at least six months delinquent and have yet to enter foreclosure, more than twice the amount held by its four largest competitors combined [...]

The data, published last month by the monitor of the settlement, highlight Bank of America’s vast backlog of delinquencies, and the years it will take to work through them as borrowers fall further behind and losses mount for investors in mortgage-backed securities. While the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank has begun modifications for many of its 275,000 homeowners at least 180 days behind as of Sept. 30, some will join the already clogged U.S. foreclosure pipeline.

I would focus less on how routing these $64 billion in mortgages into the foreclosure pipeline will affect prices and sales (though that will happen) and more about how the people behind those $64 billion of mortgages will survive without their house. Your talking about several hundred thousand if not millions of people, and this is but one mortgage lender.

Meanwhile, the mortgage market is now entirely a government-sponsored enterprise:

…with little planning and paltry public discussion, the government has almost completely taken over the American home mortgage market. Banks and other for-profit financial services companies lend money to homeowners, but without the guarantees and other support the government provides, the housing market would barely be functioning now.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the taxpayer-controlled housing giants, guaranteed 69 percent of new mortgages in the first nine months of the year, up from about 27 percent share in 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Authority and the Department of Veteran’s Affairs currently back another 21 percent of mortgages, up from just 2.8 percent in 2006. Altogether, 9 of every 10 new mortgages are backed by the U.S. taxpayer, up from three in 10 in 2006, when the government share hit a decade-low, according to the publication.

Similar to this, one should also point out the extreme price sensitivity in the mortgage market, and how the slightest increase in mortgage rates cause applications to crash. This has been a consistent dynamic, especially as it relates to refinancing. This lets you understand how much the Federal Reserve is propping up the mortgage market by purchasing mortgage backed securities and keeping rates extremely low. There is massive financial support being thrown at lenders.

And who does that enable? Companies which, as shown by this incredible chart, have committed vast amounts of fraud over the past several years, which the regulatory apparatus is only beginning to capture, and even then in cost-of-doing-business settlement. The one guilty plea that UBS had to give in the Libor scandal was the first criminal fraud charge agreed to by a major bank since 1989. Regulators have basically granted forbearance for 20-plus years, and with the other hand they shovel money toward the same fraudulent banks.

When you have the government this involved in a market, it breeds a certain corruption, or at least enables it. That’s how you get a market where banks can leave houses off the market for years and artificially constrain supply. That’s how you get investors able to scoop up all sorts of housing in the creation of another bubble. And considering that the same elements of fraud and fabrication and abuse remain evident within the marketplace, you have to say that such an enabling is already well underway.

Boehner Bails on Plan B

Let's call the whole thing off

I just finished laughing from this spectacle on the House floor today. The House leadership tried desperately to pass “Plan B,” the main part of which was an extension of the Bush tax cuts on the first $1 million of income. In truth, all of the other giveaways in it would actually result in lower taxes for many wealthy earners, but tax rates have this weird power, especially within the Republican caucus. And you could just feel today that conservatives weren’t willing to pass the bill, even at that ridiculously high level. John Boehner and the leadership added a sweetener in the form of a package that eliminated the sequester on defense spending and applied it to more discretionary spending cuts, and even that barely passed, tainted by the association to Plan B.

We waited for a vote. And waited. Then the House Republicans held a closed caucus. And then Boehner had to come out and call the whole thing off.

The House did not take up the tax measure today because it did not have sufficient support from our members to pass. Now it is up to the president to work with Senator Reid on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff. The House has already passed legislation to stop all of the January 1 tax rate increases and replace the sequester with responsible spending cuts that will begin to address our nation’s crippling debt. The Senate must now act.

This is astonishing. Boehner spent three days talking up Plan B, which you just don’t do without the votes in hand. But conservative groups rule the House, and they turned against a bill that gives tax breaks to everyone making up to $1 million, along with enough reductions in other taxes to soften the blow for those poor millionaires. But House Republicans just aren’t going to do it, on this or any tax increase.

This completely changes the dynamic of the talks, in my view. The President is simply not going to be able to win a grand bargain. The House couldn’t even do this simple millionaire’s bracket. There’s no way the President can continue to negotiate with someone who cannot bring the votes of his caucus forward. There is simply no negotiating partner on the other side, which has given way to crazy. It’s an impasse.

This way lies the slope. Going down. And frankly, I don’t see how you can be all that unhappy about it. The reality is that there will be no deal. The White House must recalibrate to that.

The Plan B Follies: Freedomworks Jumps Off the Ship

This clown show on the House floor just got more hilarious. At some point in the last four hours or so, Freedomworks, a key tea party group, abandoned their support of Plan B, this Boehner proposal to create what looks like a conservative wish list. They wrote a long encomium to Plan B at 9am this morning, and by 1:30pm, they added this:

[Update 12/20, 1:30 p.m. ET: After review of the Boehner Plan B legislation, pending in the House today, FreedomWorks has found it must oppose the legislation, and will be urging House members to vote NO on the bill. We will post our formal opposition letter on our site, soon.]

Hysterical. There’s been no reason given for this change of heart. Meanwhile, RedState continues to oppose the bill as a tax hike. It actually cuts taxes on many rich people relative to current law, while raising taxes relative to current law on the middle class and working poor.

I wonder how long they’ll have to keep this vote open to get their desired result. And meanwhile, Senate Democrats reiterated they won’t even bother to bring Plan B up for a vote. So the entire big lift here is completely meaningless. No wonder Republican numbers are tanking.

Plan B Morphs Into a Conservative Wish List

House Republicans will wait until tonight to pass “Plan B,” and while I think ultimately it will pass, the reason they’re waiting so long is that they have to figure out what to put into it to get conservative votes. Erick Son of Erick has a whip list of 34 no votes and 12 leaners, and Republicans can only lose 23, assuming no Democratic crossovers. So leadership must sweeten the pot if they want to win the vote.

And the way you sweeten the pot for House Republicans is that you kick the poor a bit more while handing out some aid to Wall Street and Lockheed Martin. Here’s the template bill in question. Basically the sequester, the automatic cuts to defense and discretionary spending, would get replaced by new cuts:

Cuts to food stamps that could knock millions of low-income Americans out of the program;

Cuts to Meals on Wheels, a program that delivers meals to seniors or other individuals who are unable to prepare their own food;

Cuts funding to health exchanges that will be created under Obamacare and funding for Medicaid included in the same law;

Cuts to the Dodd-Frank financial reform law that will yield no cost savings, but will make bailouts of big banks more likely;

Denying the Child Tax Credit to the parents of American children, if the parents are undocumented immigrants.

(Editorial comment: Dodd-Frank won’t make bailouts less likely, but cuts to the resolution authority section of the law are unwise.)

So in essence, Republicans unhappy about passing a bill that cuts taxes on the rich and raises them on the poor will be placated by cutting spending for the poor and easing up on Wall Street and defense contractors. This has become a conservative wish list, basically.

And yet, because of the weird salience of tax rates throughout the debate, the leadership will still have trouble wrangling up the votes.